By Quentin Calhoun

U.S.-Iran relations deteriorated to the brink of conflict in early January, capping a month of increased tension that reached a boiling point Jan. 8 as Iranian forces struck two American bases and inadvertently shot down a passenger jet. 

The series of incidents began on Dec. 27, when an Iranian-back militia launched a missile strike against a U.S.-led coalition base in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk. In addition to the injury of several coalition fighters, the attack resulted in the death of an American civilian contractor, Narwes Hamid.

On Dec. 29, in response to the attack, the U.S. struck five bases belonging to the militia in both Iraq and Syria. The Pentagon described the U.S. strike as “precision defensive strikes” necessary to prevent the group from being capable of conducting any further attacks against coalition personnel in the region. 

Following the strike, a large crowd of protesters targeted the American embassy in Baghdad.  The protest briefly became hostile as protesters threw stones into the embassy, and the U.S. security personnel responded with tear gas. Yet by Jan. 1, Iraqi officials successfully appealed to the protesters, convincing them to withdraw from the embassy. Tehran denied that it had any part in the protests, but the event nonetheless triggered a public spat between President Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Only days after the protesters dispersed, on Jan. 3 the Trump administration assassinated General Qasem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Soleimani had been an integral part of nearly every major Iranian military operation for decades. The U.S. accused Soleimani of being responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American service members in Iraq, but Iranians widely viewed Soleimani as a national hero. 

Though Trump insisted that the strike was necessary to “stop a war,” Ayatollah Khamenei immediately promised “forceful revenge.” Members of both the Republican and Democratic parties celebrated Soleimani’s death. Still, most of the President’s detractors stated that, nonetheless, the decision was a reckless escalation that could lead to more conflict.

Iran’s most public retribution for the assassination came as its military—not a proxy militia—launched ballistic missiles against two Iraqi bases containing American and coalition service members on Jan. 8. The attacks caused extensive damage to facilities at the bases at Erbil and Ain al-Assad but did not result in any deaths. 

During the confusion of the Jan. 8 attacks, Ukrainian passenger jet Flight 752 crashed shortly after taking off in Tehran. The plane of 176 passengers, mostly Canadians and Iranians, had no survivors, and the Iranian government quickly claimed that a technical failure caused the crash. American intelligence increasingly believed otherwise. The New York Times obtained a video that seemed to show a missile impacting the jet. By Thursday, Jan. 9, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly announced that Canada believed that “the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile,” though the missile launch could have been unintentional.

Amid growing scrutiny, Iran admitted that the plane was shot down on Jan. 11 as a result of “human error,” but maintained that the crash was the result of “US adventurism” in the region.

After the Jan. 8 Iranian missile strikes resulted in no American deaths, the Trump administration choose to retaliate with new economic sanctions, rather than additional military action. Regardless, military engagement remains deeply unpopular with the American public. Fifty-six percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, while fifty-two percent feel less safe—in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken before the Jan. 8 Iran strike on American bases. An even more substantial majority of voters (61% to 24%) oppose U.S. entrance into any new foreign conflict, according to a recent Morning Consult poll. 

The Pentagon announced on Jan. 24 that 34 service members had been diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries following the attack. President Trump appeared to downplay any injuries as a result of the Jan. 8 strikes in Davos, Switzerland, saying he “heard that they had headaches and a couple of other things” on Jan. 22.

European NATO allies have sought more diplomatic opposition to Iranian actions, lodging official disputes through the framework of the Iran nuclear deal. Although an EU official insisted that the bloc did not seek to reinstate the UN sanctions on Iran present before the deal, if Iran has violated the enrichment rules of the deal already, those sanctions could be reinstated. Iranian state media had previously claimed that the nation would no longer abide by those rules shortly after the Soleimani killing. If the deal strained under the U.S. departure, it died in January.

Iran, too, seems unlikely to pursue additional action of such dramatic nature as the missile strike in light of new public outrage. The downing of Flight 752 sparked multiple days of protest in Tehran and international condemnation. In the absence of U.S. military retaliation, escalation appears unlikely. As of Jan. 26, neither nation has pursued violence of comparable force since the strike.

Featured image credit: Sgt. Kyle C. Talbot.