By Quentin Calhoun

As one of thirteen “Super Tuesday” states, the Virginia Democratic Party will hold its Presidential Primary on Tuesday, March 3. And according to Virginia Tech Professor of Political Science Caitlin Jewitt, Virginia, along with 14 other Super Tuesday contests, will likely determine the final dynamic of the Democratic primary contest, which seems to be between US Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) and one of the moderate frontrunners. 

Super Tuesday states will determine how 1357 pledged delegates will be allocated, roughly 34% of the total. Virginia’s primary alone determines a larger number of potential delegates than any of the early states that have already voted—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

Rules vary from state to state, but delegates from each contest are allocated proportionately to all candidates with support greater than 15% of the electorate, in accordance with the Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules.

Under the Democratic Party’s rules, a candidate must secure a majority plus one (1991) of total available nationwide pledged delegates (3979) in order to win on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention, which takes place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in July. 

Otherwise, a contested convention occurs, wherein a candidate must secure a majority of pledged delegates and automatic delegates, commonly referred to as “superdelegates.” Automatic delegates are comprised of elected Democratic officials, DNC members, and party leaders, such as former presidents.  

Pledged delegates, depending on their respective state’s laws, gradually become “released” from their candidate after successive convention ballots that fail to produce a nominee. They may then vote for who they please, though under the rules of the Democratic Party, they must “in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” Delegates will continue to vote until a majority produces a Presidential and Vice Presidential nominee.

Among the leading candidates, Sanders is looking to capitalize on major wins in early states and cement his place as the undisputed frontrunner. According to recent polling, he is likely to do so. Two CNN/SSRS polls conducted Feb. 22-24 found Sanders leading in the two largest contests of Super Tuesday, California and Texas, with 35% and 29%, respectively. 

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign, after disappointing results in Iowa and New Hampshire, is looking to capitalize on the Vice President’s popularity among African American voters in the southern states that will hold their primaries on March 3. Biden seeks to replicate his massive Feb. 29 South Carolina primary victory in North Carolina, Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. 

Meanwhile, former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, (NY-D) who did not compete in any of the first four Democratic primaries, will now compete in every Super Tuesday state. After entering the Democratic primary race late in Nov. 2019, the Bloomberg campaign believed it needed more time to in order to “start on even footing” with other campaigns.

Using his personal wealth, in excess of 60 billion dollars, his campaign has placed massive ad orders throughout the nation, positioning him as a moderate counterweight to Sanders. There is evidence his strategy is working, despite a poor performance during the Feb. 19 Nevada debate.

Sanders is widely viewed to have consolidated the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party, while the moderate support among the electorate is divided between Biden, Bloomberg, former South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg, and US Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN-D). 

President Donald Trump remains the most pressing issue among Democratic voters. In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll of nation-wide Democrats, three in five Democratic-leaning adults said they would rather the nominee be able to beat the president than agree with them on major issues. In an exit poll of South Carolina primary voters, 86% reported either feeling either “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the Trump administration.

According to a recent Monmouth University Poll, Sanders and Bloomberg are currently tied in Virginia’s Democratic primary race, each with 22% of the vote, with Biden closely behind with 18%. Buttigieg (IN-D) trails with 11%, and all other candidates failed to secure double-digit support. Still, only one quarter of Virginia voters indicated they were “firmly decided” on their candidate, while 52% indicated there was a “high” or “moderate” chance they would change their mind.

Similarly, in a Match poll of Collegiate Upper Schoolers, Sanders and Bloomberg would tie for first place in a hypothetical Collegiate Democratic Presidential Primary. Both Bloomberg and Sanders received a quarter of the vote, while Buttigieg and Biden received 19.0% and 11.2% of the vote, respectively. Remaining voters were fragmented between many different candidates, some of whom have already dropped out of the race. 116 students, out of 553 in Collegiate’s Upper School, responded to the poll between Feb. 18 and 21.

Overall, Collegiate students showed a great deal of concern about the tenor of the Democratic field. William Otero (‘20) said that “the fact that sixty percent-plus [of Democrats] prefer someone who would beat Trump over someone they agree with shows how divided we are as a country.” Hayden Johnson (‘20) described the race as “needlessly aggressive,” while other students described the race as “radically polarizing” and “extreme.”

One senior said that while they did not think they would vote for a Democrat, they might vote for Biden, saying, “our country could use a break from divisive party lines, so maybe voting for a more moderate Democrat could give us that opportunity.” A different, Sanders-supporting Collegiate senior begged her fellow primary voters, “Please don’t make me vote for Joe Biden.” 

One Buttigieg supporter hoped that, because they felt Buttigieg was more moderate than other candidates, he would be able to “throw his support behind liberal beliefs while still pacifying conservatives who vote for him” as president. 

Still, many students are confident in President Trump’s chances in November. Andrew Kauders (‘20) says, “I don’t see a candidate that can beat Trump,” and other students similarly stated that Trump would win, whoever the eventual Democratic nominee may be.

Emma Blackwood (‘20) credited dissatisfaction with the primary with “decision fatigue,” drawing attention to the number of candidates and the length of the primary race. She says,  “Americans are really tired of how long our presidential elections take. The primaries are important but there’s so much about them that needs fixing.”

Virginia’s polls close at 7:00 p.m. EST on March 3, with 99 pledged delegates at stake for multiple campaigns.

Featured image credit: Kelly Delay.

Read more about the election in Leighton Klevana’s article about what went wrong in Iowa.