By Slate Lambert

The 2021 Virginia race for governor kept people all around the country watching closely. Virginia is sometimes referred to as a bellwether state, especially in this election cycle. A bellwether state is one in which key elections take place in an off-year for presidential elections. These bellwether states are sometimes useful indicators of trends in the political landscape, especially since they usually fall the years between midterm congressional elections. Many people involved in politics pay attention to bellwethers in order to predict the outcome of presidential and congressional elections.

Youngkin campaigning. Photo credit: Yahoo News.

Political newcomer Glenn Youngkin became the Republican candidate and was considered an underdog in this election. Youngkin, who has zero political experience, is a self-made millionaire who worked for years in private equity. Terry McAuliffe, a former governor of Virginia (2014-2018), was more experienced in the political landscape, making him a much more convincing option for many. McAuliffe’s campaign focused on the common topics of the economy, climate change, and affordable housing. However, Youngkin’s campaign took a different approach, focusing on issues that hit closer to home, such as education.

The issue of education is one that became increasingly debated and controversial in the final months of the election. McAuliffe, who had been leading in the polls for much of the campaign period, saw that lead slip away after saying, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” at a debate on Sept. 28. According to Fox News and MSNBC, McAuliffe’s comments on parent involvement in their child’s education did not sit well with many voters and ultimately cost him election day. 

Youngkin v. McAuliffe debate. Photo credit: Cliff Owen/AP News.

The Youngkin campaign pounced on the opportunity to use McAuliffe’s own rhetoric against him and campaigned with a large focus on education. In the waning weeks of the campaign, Youngkin was able to catch up in the polls. 

While Youngkin had finally caught up with his opponent with the help of independents in October, he had not yet taken the lead. The tie in the polls remained for weeks in October, with the two campaigns entering a period of deadlock. 

When election day finally rolled around on Tuesday, Nov. 6, results were too close to call for most of the day, with both candidates getting the support from the expected places. Almost all of the rural vote went to Youngkin, and McAuliffe was winning most of the urban centers. However, there was one key trend within the population powerhouses of Northern Virginia, Richmond, and the Hampton Roads area: most of these areas went 10+ points more Republican than from the 2020 Presidential election. This comes as a big win for the GOP, as these areas are key to the vote in Virginia, since they are the most populous in the state.

Growth of Republican support in Virginia. Image credit: New York Times.

The growth in support seen for Youngkin and the Republican Party comes after growing disapproval of President Biden over concerns for the economy, supply chain issues, and his withdrawal from Afghanistan. The GOP was able to win throughout the whole state, with Lieutenant Governor-Elect Winsome Sears, who became the first woman lieutenant governor and the first Black woman elected to a statewide position. Along with Sears, Jason Miyares was elected as the first Latino Attorney General in Virginia. These wins mark the first time the GOP has won statewide races since 2009.

With Republicans able to capitalize in Virginia and gain back support in a mostly blue state, this could hint towards what the next election cycle will look like with the midterm elections next year.

Featured image photo credit: Steve Helber/AP News.