Author’s Note: I wrote the first half of this article before the 2023 NFL Draft took place on April 27. I wanted to make some predictions as to what I believed would happen and address the top storylines going into the night. The second half of this article was written about my analysis after all seven rounds of the draft were completed on April 29. Let’s see how I did! 

By Nicholas Chambers

PRE-DRAFT – April 26

Image credit: Mohamed Hassan via pixabay.

The 2023 NFL Draft is set to start on Thursday, April 27 at 8 p.m. ET in Kansas City, Missouri, on the platforms ESPN, ABC, and NFL Network. Just moments away from the big stage, the NFL’s top event of the spring is sure to shake up mock drafts and Big Boards across the country. Here are the notable headlines and predictions going into the night. 

The biggest headline around the NFL Draft is the mystery of the number one overall pick. After a horrible 2022 season, finishing with a 3-14 record, the Chicago Bears held the pick all the way up until early March. Chicago had mixed reviews about what to do with the pick for months, with many rumors about their franchise quarterback, Justin Field, potentially being on the trading block. Could they trade Fields, get a bunch of future draft picks in return, and roll the dice on a QB in this year’s draft? 

On March 10, Bears’ new general manager Ryan Poles decided that it would be best to ride it out with Fields and deal the number 1 overall pick in the draft. The Bears received a haul: the #9 overall pick, the #61 overall pick, a 2024 first round pick, a 2025 second round pick, and star wide receiver D.J Moore from the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were now on the clock.

In terms of the most exciting question mark surrounding the draft, the Carolina Panthers now control their destiny. With atrocious play by their QBs—Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and P.J Walker—in 2022, and new management throughout their coaching staff for 2023, the Panthers decided it was most important to start this new chapter by getting a true playmaker in the draft. So important, in fact, that they needed to leapfrog eight teams to make sure they got the guy they wanted. Only 12 teams in NFL history have traded up to the number one overall pick since 1967, three of which were for quarterbacks, with only one being a true hit: Michael Vick to the Atlanta Falcons in 2001. They now have until Thursday to choose between the top four QB prospects in the draft: Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Florida’s Anthony Richardson, and Kentucky’s Will Levis. 

QB Bryce Young scrambling for Alabama. Photo courtesy of the University of Alabama.

Depending on what the Panthers do at number 1, the remaining quarterback dominos to fall could drastically change the outlook of the first round. A few days before the draft, there are four teams, including the Panthers, that are in search of a new franchise quarterback: the Houston Texans (No. 2 overall pick), Indianapolis Colts (No. 4), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 19). Other teams that do not necessarily need a QB but could definitely draft one in the first round are the Seattle Seahawks (No. 5), Detroit Lions (No. 6), Tennessee Titans (No. 11), New England Patriots (No. 14), and Minnesota Vikings (No. 23).

A former Heisman Trophy winner and National Champion, Young presents the most accomplished college career out of the four QB prospects and is widely considered the most pro-ready QB in the draft. Concerns about his undersized 5’10” frame and durability are the main questions that plague the young signal caller coming into the draft. The most polished QB of the draft is Stroud, but after recent reports of him scoring an 18% on the S2 Cognitive Test, one of the worst performances by a quarterback in history, mock drafts have him dropping as low as number 12 after being the presumed number 1 overall pick just a month ago.

Richardson comes in as the major risk, gigantic reward type of QB prospect. After a decent college career, but a historic NFL Combine performance, his draft stock has skyrocketed him from a fringe 1st rounder all the way to the first overall pick in some mock drafts. The former Gator will likely need to sit a year behind a veteran to reach his full potential in the NFL. Finally, there is the wildcard Wildcat, Levis, who lacks some of the necessary intangibles that the other three guys have but has the strongest arm out in the draft and a unique playing style that could help him develop into a successful systems QB in the NFL, with the right team.

The betting favorite to go number one overall as of April 21 is Young. My prediction: Young will be selected 1st overall by the Carolina Panthers.  

Aaron Rodgers. Photo credit: All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons.

However, it wouldn’t be the NFL without veteran QB drama. After a three-year blowout with the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers is finally leaving. Or is he? Rodgers verbally stated his plans to join the New York Jets, trade permitting, after coming out of a darkness retreat to determine his fate in the football world this past February. Except… nothing has happened since then. With both sides still working on the logistics of a deal, the pressure is on for the Jets to successfully land A-Rod in the green and white by 8 o’clock on Thursday night. My prediction: The New York Jets send a package that includes the No. 13 overall pick and a 2024 first rounder for Rodgers and a 2023 6th. 

And then there’s the situation in Baltimore. On March 7, the Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on franchise cornerstone Lamar Jackson, retaining the superstar quarterback for the 2023-2024 NFL season under a 1 year, 32.4 million dollar guaranteed contract. This comes as a disappointment, with Jackson and the Ravens having been in contract negotiations for over a year, and, despite this, not being able to agree on the details of a long term contract. Jackson declined a 250 million dollar deal back in September after the guaranteed number of 133 million dollars was too low for him. 

This, of course, is coming off the heels of the Cleveland Browns inking a deal with franchise QB Deshaun Watson for a 230 million guaranteed number. And all of this while Watson is dealing with 23 civil lawsuits for sexual misconduct, many ongoing, at the time of signing his contract. 

Jackson has put together a resumé that includes zero off-the-field issues since coming into the league in 2018, a 2019 MVP award, and a 45-16 record as a starting quarterback, proving that he deserved just as much if not more than that 230 million guaranteed contract that Watson received. My prediction: Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens eventually agree on a five-year, 280 million dollar contract, with 205 million in guarantees, by the start of the NFL Draft.

259 rookies will hear their names called this weekend and achieve a lifelong dream of playing football at the highest level. So many great players will come off the board this weekend, and nothing will top the life-changing experience of hearing their names called on draft night. Here are my round 1 predictions for Thursday. 

Nicholas Chambers’ Final Mock Draft 7.1.

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POST DRAFT – May 2

The 2023 NFL Draft was nothing short of entertaining. Six first-round trades rounded out the unconventional opening night, and many picks left fans and viewers in shock across the nation. Mock drafts were shattered across the board as NFL teams selected who they thought would best represent their franchises for the next 4-5 years. Arguably the most famous NFL Draft analyst of all time, ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Jr., predicted only two of the 31 first round picks in this year’s draft correctly, according to his 2023 final mock draft. To put this in perspective, I predicted four of the first 31 first round picks in this year’s draft, and I spent astronomically less time covering the draft than Kiper did. That’s how crazy and unpredictable the 2023 NFL Draft was. 

Before the draft officially started, I hit on all of my predictions. Aaron Rodgers got traded to the New York Jets just days after I finished the analysis above, for a very similar package to the one I predicted. Lamar Jackson indeed got paid, inking a five-year, 260 million dollar contract extension with 185 million in guarantees, just 20 million less in both departments from my prediction. And when the first pick of the NFL Draft was in, the Carolina Panthers selected QB Bryce Young out of Alabama, making me three-for-three on pre-draft prophecies. However, the mayhem started at pick number 2.

CJ Stroud at Ohio State. Photo credit: Maize Blue Nation via Wikimedia Commons.

Despite all the rumors leading up to the draft, the Houston Texans selected a quarterback at number 2 after all, announcing Ohio State’s C.J Stroud to be their new man under center. Then, they executed the biggest trade of the entire NFL Draft. Houston traded up from #12 to #3 with the Arizona Cardinals, dealing multiple future draft picks, to select EDGE rusher Will Anderson, Jr., and have both a new franchise quarterback and the best defensive player in the draft. QB Anthony Richardson went 4th overall to the Indianapolis Colts, and the Seattle Seahawks selected, in my opinion, the most underrated pick of the 1st round, CB Devon Witherspoon, to round out the top 5. 

Some of the more surprising picks of the first round were the pair of running backs going in the top 12, with the Falcons drafting RB Bijan Robinson at #8 and the Lions taking RB Jahmyr Gibbs at #12. CB Christian Gonzalez sliding past the Lions, Raiders, Falcons, Steelers, and Commanders was a major surprise to a bunch of analysts, as he fell to 17th overall to the Patriots. The Cardinals trading back from #3 to #12 with the Texans and back up to #6 with the Lions was also considered a bold move that paid off when they landed their top player, OT Paris Johnson, Jr., in addition to securing excess draft capital from their trades. But the majority of the surprising first round buzz included the premier names that did not get drafted. CB Joey Porter, Jr., SAF Brian Branch, and TE Michael Mayer led the pack as top prospects who would have to wait until Day 2 to be selected.

However, the massive shock of the NFL Draft was QB Will Levis. The number 4 ranked QB in the draft, who was believed to be a consensus top 5 pick and was the betting favorite to be drafted #2 overall, just days before the draft, fell to the second round. Going into the draft, ESPN Analytics had a 0.1 percent chance that Levis would be available at pick number 25. Instead, the whole world watched as the cameras panned to a nervous Levis, who did not hear his name called on opening night. However, he didn’t have to wait long on Day 2, with the Tennessee Titans trading up to select him with the second pick in the second round, at pick #33. 

My least favorite picks from the first round of the draft included the New York Jets selecting EDGE Will McDonald IV at #15 (D+ grade), the Detroit Lions selecting LB Jack Campbell at #18 (C grade), and the Washington Commanders picking CB Emmanuel Forbes at #16 over available cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Joey Porter, Jr. (C- grade). All three are stud players who heard their names called unexpectedly early and fill their new team’s needs, but with the considerable amount of talent still on the board at the time of selections, I gave them lower grades.

My favorite moves from Day 1 were the Philadelphia Eagles trading up for DT Jalen Carter at #9 (A+) and snagging EDGE Nolan Smith with their second pick at #30 (A-). I loved the Seattle Seahawks drafting the number one cornerback and number one wide receiver in the draft, Witherspoon at #5 (A) and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at #20 (A) with their first two picks. The Buffalo Bills trading up to #25 to draft TE Dalton Kincaid (A-) was one of the more under-the-radar moves of the first round. 

In review, the 2023 NFL Draft was a spectacular event that came with many surprises and awesome storylines. My consensus winners from all seven rounds of the event were the Philadelphia Eagles (A+), Houston Texans (A+), Pittsburgh Steelers (A), Seattle Seahawks (A), and Indianapolis Colts (A-). These teams loaded up on talent this offseason through the draft, as they looked to gain an early edge in the race to Super Bowl 58.

Featured image credit: The New York Post.