By Ben McLoughlin

Along with the changing of the leaves, and the smell of pumpkin spice entering the atmosphere, the beginning of the college basketball season is a telltale sign that autumn has arrived. In my house, the days surrounding Thanksgiving are characterized by ESPN almost always running in the background, as talent-filled college teams participate in early season tournaments, playing star-studded matchups every day. If the Blue Devils of Duke play, everything stops, and my whole family will surround the TV.  

For a few reasons, it is my opinion that NCAA Division I mens basketball is the most electric sport in America. It feels like everyone and their mom has a team, even if they don’t usually follow basketball or sports closely. The college environment makes for energetic atmospheres for games, and upsets are common. There are so many variables involved, like home-court advantage and streaky players, so it is almost impossible to make accurate predictions. Every season has traditions and surprises, culminating in March Madness, the greatest playoff in any sport. Before March, though, fall men’s college basketball presents some major matchups and upsets. This season has been no exception.

In recent years, college sports have been changing, most notably with athletes being allowed to profit off of their name/image/likeness, or NIL. This has allowed athletes, such as Duke’s preseason All-American big man Kyle Filipowski, to elect to stay in college rather than go to the NBA immediately. In addition, players transferring between colleges has become more common, most notably with Michigan center Hunter Dickinson choosing to finish his college career at perennial basketball powerhouse Kansas instead. In part because of these trends, Kansas and Duke entered the season ranked #1 and #2, respectively, by the AP Poll, a weekly poll of the best teams in the game voted on by sportswriters and broadcasters. Purdue, led by 7-foot, 4-inch, National Player of the Year favorite Zach Edey, came in #3, and defending champions Connecticut was #6.

Purdue star big man Zach Edey. Photo credit: flickr user MGoBlog via Wikimedia Commons.

It didn’t even take one day for an almost inexplicable upset to happen. On Monday, November 6, the first day of the season, 16.5-point underdogs JMU beat #4 Michigan State 79-76 in front of a full-capacity East Lansing crowd. In a game with squandered leads and an overtime period, the Spartans of Michigan State shot an inexplicable 5% from three-point range, along with myriad other woes. JMU has gone on to be a pleasant surprise of the season, ranked in the top 25 for the first time in school history, and remaining undefeated (10-0) since.

Other programs have surprised as well, for reasons impressive and embarrassing. Perennial favorites (and widely despised) Duke have fallen to 7-3 and ranked #21 after unfortunate losses on the road, losing their star point guard Tyrese Proctor to injury in one against Georgia Tech.

Seemingly unstoppable Purdue blew through top 11 teams in Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette on their way to winning the prestigious, annual Maui Invitational Tournament, before losing to lowly Northwestern on the road in a game where they conceded 92 points.

Although UNC’s offense has sometimes seemed unstoppable, the Tar Heels dropped a game to shaky Villanova in overtime early in the season. Most surprisingly, Kentucky lost a game at home to the Seahawks of UNC Wilmington, a game Kentucky was favored to win by 19 points. Losing at home is rare for college powerhouses, as the loud home crowd is always a factor for talented teams. Arizona has emerged as a bright spot, occupying the #1 spot in the rankings at one point, for the first time in nine years. After knocking off Duke in one of the toughest road environments in basketball, the Wildcats remained undefeated heading into their monumental, must-watch matchup with Purdue on Dec. 16. Purdue managed to beat Arizona that day, however, 92-84. 

In a sport so variable, predictions hold little meaning, especially so early in the season. However, I will do my best to predict the season using equal parts logic and personal bias. Because my favorite team Duke has not lived up to preseason expectations (yet), my championship prediction is Marquette, led by former VCU coach Shaka Smart. Marquette has the perfect combination of suffocating, top-20 defense, and impressive offense. Marquette has experience and can play at a medium tempo, consistent with most champions of the past decade.

Marquette’s mascot, the Golden Eagle. Photo credit: Matthew D. Britt via flickr.

The betting favorite to win as of now is Purdue, for good reason. Edey is exceeding all expectations and playing at an unstoppable level, and the team has played well in high-ranked matchups. However, I am wary of buying into the hype. So much of their offense revolves around Edey, and if teams find a way to stop him, the surrounding players will have to step up to a championship level. In addition, Purdue’s defense is shaky at times, and if their three-pointers don’t fall and/or Edey gets into foul trouble, they will face problems.

My dark horse team that could impress down the stretch is Wisconsin. Currently at 8-3 and claiming the 26th-best odds to win it all, Wisconsin has faced a tough schedule, losing to Arizona and Tennessee. They have strong wins, however, over #22 Virginia, as well as Marquette. Wisconsin has experience and talent, and I expect them to improve as the season progresses.

Even as the sport changes, NCAA basketball remains as exciting as ever. By March, the whole country will be humming with excitement and connected by college students playing basketball in the chaotic, winner-take-all March Madness. Until then, teams will continue to compete not only for individual victories, but the glory of passionate teammates, coaches, students, alumni, and fans like me.

Featured image credit: flickr user bp6316.