By Heath Brown  

According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, North America’s temperature has increased by an annual rate of 0.23°F since 1910 and 0.49°F since 1981. Additionally, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that the average sea level has risen by 0.12 to 0.14 inches per year since 1993. This rate of growth is almost twice as fast as the ocean’s rate of growth from 1880-2013. Like the rest of the world, Virginia will continue to experience climate change. But just how much will it be affected? 

Virginia has four ski resorts currently in operation: Massanutten, Bryce, Omni Homestead, and Wintergreen. Although the quantity and quality of the slopes are superior in the Western U.S., due to the greater elevations and snowfall, East Coast families have still been going to these resorts for generations to enjoy the mountains and skiing. 

In 2023, Tyler Stepanian (‘24) wrote an article for The Match on how climate change is changing the ski industry, and he wrote, “the total snowfall at Wintergreen in the past six years has been zero three times, whereas, during the early 2010s, the resort averaged upwards of 40 inches of snow per year.” For the 2023-24 season, the resort reported a total snowfall of just 7 inches. Out of necessity, Wintergreen has a complex computerized snowmaking system that covers 100 percent of the resort’s terrain. This machine network allows the resort to cover its slopes with man-made snow and remain open, even if there is no natural snow. However, for this system to produce enough snow to keep the resort open, outside temperatures must be below 32°F or the artificial snow will not stick. Additionally, WSLS-10 News reports that 98% of the U.S. is experiencing shorter cold streaks now than a few decades ago, according to a study from Climate Central. A cold streak is back-to-back days of below average temperatures in the winter. Virginia, and especially Roanoke, is one of the many areas of the country that has been affected by this phenomenon, causing less extreme winters, on average, and making winter feel shorter. With annual snowfall rates falling and the conditions for making snow becoming less hospitable, the future of skiing in Virginia is in jeopardy. 

Skiers at Wintergreen Resort. Photo credit: Kyle T. via Flickr.

At the other end of the state and its elevation levels lies Tangier Island, a remote island in the Chesapeake Bay between the Eastern Shore and the Northern Neck of Virginia. Accessible only by boat or small plane, the island has a small historical community where everybody knows each other and where most locals make a living off of the Bay, fishing, crabbing, and oyster harvesting. Cut off from the rest of the state and country for centuries, many people who live on the island speak a distinctive dialect of Southern American English derived from the 17th and 18th centuries. 

Tangier would be virtually unheard of if it were not a prime example of rapid climate change in Virginia. Since 1850, Tangier Island has disturbingly lost two-thirds of its landmass and surrounding islands, as reported by WUSA 9 in December 2023. Coastal erosion and sea level rise are two of the largest contributors to the island’s problems. In the 1970s, Tangier had a population of around 1200 islanders. Climate change has driven most of these people out, as now only 400 people remain on the island. James Eskridge, the mayor of Tangier Island, said, “I’ve seen islands disappear, some islands around Tangier, We’ve lost about six or seven other smaller communities that used to be around Tangier. They’re just underwater now. They had no means to get protection for their community, so they just abandoned their community, and they’re just underwater now. So that’s what we don’t want to happen here.” Eskridge has been a Tangier resident his whole life and has a long family history on the island. He said, “It would be unthinkable just to abandon this and start over somewhere.”

Aerial view of Tangier Island. Photo credit: Chesapeake Bay Program via Flickr.

However, despite his wishes, remaining on the island, even for just another 50 years, may not be an option for its residents. David Schulte, an oceanographer for the United States Army Corps of Engineers, has studied the island for the past two decades. He predicts that Tangier will be uninhabitable for its residents by 2053 due to sea level rise and a concerning increase in flooding on the island every year. 

Some preventative measures have proven to help preserve the island. In 1989, the Army Corps of Engineers built a jetty to protect the seawall on the west side of the island. According to Eskridge, “We were losing 25 – 30 feet of seawall there each year,” but “We haven’t lost an inch since then. So it works.” Another option would be to elevate the island with material, a practice that was successfully done for Port Isobel Island, which neighbors Tangier. While these solutions are proven to help, it would cost an estimated 250-350 million dollars to save Tangier. Considering that the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that it would be 150 million dollars cheaper to relocate the Tangier residents than to save the island, it is hard to believe that all the preventative measures possible will be put into place. 

Tangier Island is just one example of an island in the Chesapeake Bay—the largest estuary in the United States, reaching across Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania—that is being swallowed up by rising sea levels. The Environmental and Society Portal reports that more than 500 Bay islands have vanished since the mid-1800s. Like Tangier, some of these islands had residents who lost their homes and were forced to resettle on the mainland. While only a small number of people are affected by the disappearance of small islands like Tangier today, it is reflective of a larger issue around rising sea levels that is projected to affect many more people very soon.

The Chesapeake Bay is home to more than 3,600 species of plants and animals, according to the NOAA. The Bay supports a large seafood industry that employs many people and provides even more people with food. The NOAA reports that 500 million pounds of seafood are eaten from the Bay each year. The regional economy heavily relies upon this production. However, climate change is disturbing the ecosystems of the Bay and, in turn, the seafood industry in the area. Oysters are essential to the Chesapeake Bay because they filter nutrients in the water and grow in reefs that are habitats for fish and crabs. While oysters are somewhat tolerant of fresh water, they need saltier water to grow and reproduce. Increasing annual rainfall, such as in 2018, is troubling, because if the salinity levels of the Bay get too low and oyster production is hindered, the entire ecosystem and seafood industry could be negatively affected.  

Chesapeake Bay Blue Claw crabs. Photo credit: Jim Brickett via Flickr.

The World Population Review predicts that the population of the city of Virginia Beach is approximately 449,494, according to the latest US census. This area is the largest city in Virginia and is expected to experience an increased risk of precipitation, heat, and flooding. Climate Check reports Virginia Beach should expect an average of 30 days per year over 94ºF by 2050. In 1990, a typical year only had around seven. As a result, the number of fire risk days is expected to increase through 2050. In a census tract (statistical evaluation of counties with about 4,000 inhabitants) of 152, there were 143 sections where more than half the buildings had significant fire risk. 90% of buildings in the area are at wildfire risk through 2050. The typical risk rating is around nine percent. Flooding, because of rising sea levels and a projected increase of 3 inches of precipitation per year by 2050, will be more frequent and severe in Virginia Beach. 73% of buildings are at flood risk through 2050 and, “Buildings at risk in Virginia Beach average about a 58% chance of a flood about 1.0 feet deep over 30 years,” according to Climate Check. 

An article published by Community Change Outlooks, a site associated with Penn State University and the NOAA, explains the health and infrastructural dangers of climate change in Virginia. Heat waves, which are periods of abnormally hot weather that last two or more days, are dangerous to everybody, especially children, pregnant women, the elderly, outdoor workers, and lower income residents. Higher temperatures also put upward pressure on the demand for air conditioning. Electricity demand for cooling increases by 5-20% for every added degree in Celsius. Too much demand can overload the system and cause rolling blackouts. Even if rainfall levels only increase a few inches, it would still have a detrimental effect. The article reports, “Heavy rain overwhelms infrastructure and drainage systems, causing property damage and covering roads.” Other infrastructural problems, such as septic backup, worse water quality, and indoor air quality issues from mold also arise from flooding.

The Naval Station Norfolk. Photo credit: Robert J. Sitar via NARA and DVIDS Public Domain Archive.

Communities near bodies of water will be the most susceptible to flooding as sea levels rise. In an article on East Coast flooding, The New York Times reported that Hampton Roads, Virginia is sinking over two centimeters per decade: “A few millimeters of sinking a year can seem gradual, but the effects can be extreme: storm surges can suddenly wash away the soil from beneath the roads, or floodwaters can fill basements and cut off emergency routes. Each inch the land slumps towards the water table can make floods significantly, catastrophically worse.” VPM News reports that the global average rate of sea level rise is about 3.3 millimeters per year. In addition, in the parts of Hampton Roads with the most extreme climate change land is sinking up to as much as 6 millimeters per year. When put together, the region is losing up to 9 millimeters of land annually. Manoochehr Shirzaei, associate professor of geophysics and remote sensing at Virginia Tech University, said, “Land that’s at the moment above the water will be submerged within a few decades,” to describe the rapidly changing area. Along with being the home to 1.79 million people, according to Virginia Business, Hampton Roads also has the largest naval base in the world, the Naval Station Norfolk, with 80,000 active-duty personnel. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is leading a $2.6 billion, 10-year project to safeguard the city of Norfolk, a part of Hampton Roads, and its vital base. 

In the New York Times article on the East Coast sinking, Dr. Joshua W. Miller, a professor and chair of the Department of Nutritional Sciences in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences at Rutgers University said, “the thing about sea level [rise]… It’s slow and it’s insidious and continuous. That is, until the next big storm hits.” Worldwide, climate change is responsible for an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, heat waves, and winter storms. As a result, Virginia will be more susceptible to weather catastrophes in the future.